Your New York Broker

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Condos in Turtle Bay

New condominium under construction.... great new building creating the landscape of Midtown East....

303 East 51st Street
150 units
30 stories
Architect: Garrett Gourlay Architect
Developer:  Kennelly Development Company

50 United Nations Plaza at 345 East 46th Street
87 units
44 stories
Built in 2014
Architect:  Foster & Partners
Developer:  Zeckendorf Development
Sales start:  01/01/2014

Monday, June 28, 2010

Condo Auction a Rare Success

Misha Haghani of Paramount Realty USA, who auctioned the property, said that while individuals and banks had auctioned off apartments in the past, this was the first successful auction by a Manhattan developer in more than two decades.

The developers of the narrow, 12-story building at 127 Madison Ave., known as m127, put the apartments up for auction, including five without any reserve or contingencies, after failing to sell the deep full-floor units as well as a penthouse with a terrace for several years.

The auction attracted more than 100 registered bidders to the Roosevelt Hotel, and the winners took apartments at an average of $840 per square foot, a steep discount from original asking prices. A 1,577-square-foot fifth-floor apartment sold for $1.24 million, including a 5% auction premium, 25% less than a similar apartment sold for in the spring of 2008, when apartment prices were near a peak.

Malcolm Carter, a broker and blogger who closely follows auctions in New York City, said the m127 auction appeared more successful than some auctions in other boroughs, but said the final sale price was disappointing.

"I think the auction was successful in bringing people in the door and successful in providing an unwelcome sense of reality," he said.

The threat of foreclosure had placed a cloud over the auction, but late Friday afternoon the developer announced that their lender, the Bank of Smithtown, "had been satisfied in full."

Within hours of the auction, the developer, Cardinal Investment, signed contracts to sell five full-floor units to the buyers. Kyle Ransford, a principal of Cardinal Investment, said the auction "gave us an opportunity for some recovery."

David Nguyen offered the winning bid of $2.05 million for a penthouse apartment that he hopes to live in someday.

When the developer offered the penthouse, it reserved the right to reject the bid, and Mr. Nguyen said he is now worried that he may not be able to buy it. "Its just a gamble that we are taking," he said. "I work in finance and it is just another trade for me."

Friday, April 23, 2010

April 30 can qualify for federal tax credits worth up to $8,000.

Tax credits sparked a big jump in home sales last month, as first-time buyers took advantage of low prices and interest rates.

But the longer-term housing outlook remains clouded, with a large inventory of foreclosed homes expected to hit the market later this year.

The Wall Street Journal's latest quarterly survey of housing-market conditions in 28 major metro areas found that inventories of homes for sale, as well as the number of distressed borrowers, remain very high in many areas. That portends more downward pressure on prices from bank foreclosures.

Though tax credits are providing a temporary boost, "we're still in a very fragile housing market," said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a research firm, who doesn't expect a full recovery before 2013.

Sales of single-family homes and condominiums hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million in March, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. That compares with a 5.01 million rate in February and was up 16% from the depressed March 2009 rate of 4.61 million.

The Journal survey found that Miami, Orlando and Tampa, Fla., Las Vegas, Phoenix and Atlanta have some of the highest concentrations of distressed borrowers at risk of losing their homes. Nearly 28% of homeowners with mortgages are at least 30 days late on payments in the Miami area, more than double the national average of 12.2%, according to LPS Applied Analytics. That rate stands at about 24% in Orlando and Las Vegas.

The supply of homes already on the market is well above the national average in Charlotte, N.C., Jacksonville, Fla., Nashville, Tenn., Chicago and Philadelphia. In Charlotte, where bank cutbacks have increased unemployment, there are enough homes on the market to last 17 months at the average sales pace of the past year. That compares with 15 months in Jacksonville, 13 in the Long Island suburbs of New York and 11 in the New Jersey suburbs. A market generally is considered balanced when the supply is around six months.

Among metro areas with relatively low rates of delinquent borrowers and for-sale inventories: Boston, Denver, Dallas, Houston, Minneapolis, San Francisco and Washington, D.C.

The median price for home resales in March was $170,700, up 0.4% from a year earlier, the Realtors reported. A price index produced by the Federal Housing Finance Agency in February was down 3.4% from a year earlier, the agency said. Realtors say prices for middle-class homes in the types of neighborhoods that attract investors and first-time buyers are flat or rising slightly, while higher-end home prices generally continue to fall.

For now, real estate agents have a compelling pitch: Prices have fallen an average of about 30% across the country since peaking in 2006; mortgage rates are near their lowest levels in four decades; and many people who sign a contract to buy a home by April 30 can qualify for federal tax credits worth up to $8,000. "Now is the time to do something," said Bill Wilkerson, an agent at ZipRealty in Phoenix.

One of Mr. Wilkerson's customers, Rebecca Ahlschwede, last week offered about $200,000 for a three-bedroom foreclosed home with a pool in Scottsdale, Ariz. Ms. Ahlschwede, a 31-year-old neurology technician who currently rents, said the $8,000 tax credit would be "a huge bonus."

The tax credit appears to be giving more of a boost to previously occupied homes than to new construction, as first-time buyers favor the short commutes of older neighborhoods. Ms. Zelman said the rise in sales of new homes appeared more moderate than many builders had hoped.

The rush to qualify for the credit will end after the April 30 deadline for signed contracts, though the resulting boost to completed home sales will continue to help monthly reports through June.

Those tax credits likely pulled forward sales that otherwise would have occurred later in the year. Partly as a result, "I think we're going to have a pretty soft second half" of 2010 for housing sales, said John Burns, a real estate consultant in Irvine, Calif.

Bank efforts to work out lower loan payments for some borrowers have delayed millions of foreclosures, but those who don't qualify are now increasingly losing their homes.

Moody's Economy.com predicts that 1.9 million homes will be lost to foreclosures or related defaults this year and another 1.1 million in 2011. That compares with two million last year and 600,000 in normal times.

Unemployment remains high and is unlikely to improve much soon, some economists say.Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, expects the unemployment rate to be 10.2% at year's end, up from 9.7% in March. At the end of 2011, he sees a still hefty 8.6% rate.

Credit conditions, already tight, will get tighter in at least one respect. Around a third of home sales in recent months have been financed by loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration, which allows down payments as low as 3.5%. But now, the FHA is tightening its terms somewhat.

By early summer, the FHA plans to reduce the maximum amount a seller can contribute to the buyer's closing costs—such as loan-origination, legal and appraisal fees—to 3% of the home price from 6%. That means buyers will have to save more to meet closing costs. Mr. Burns said a survey of builders by his firm found they expected the FHA change to eliminate as many as 15% of potential buyers.

Many economists expect rates on standard 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to rise at least moderately from the recent level of 5% to 5.25%. Mr. Zandi expects a rate of about 5.7% by year's end.

Despite these worries, Jacelyn Botti, who heads residential sales for seven mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states for Weichert Realtors, said that home-sales contracts signed by the firm's customers in March were up about 26% from a year earlier in that area, and April was on track for another gain of more than 20%. Prices on lower-end homes are trending up in some areas, Ms. Botti said.

Newland Communities, a San Diego-based company that plans and develops communities in 14 states, says 761 homes sold in those communities in the first quarter, up 28% from a year earlier. Robert McLeod, chief executive officer of Newland, said Austin, Houston and San Diego were among the stronger markets for the company. He thinks recovering consumer confidence is helping sales. "It's all about job growth," Mr. McLeod said.

Friday, March 05, 2010

Next wave of buyers

Equity Firms Cheer Return Of 'Staple'; Critics Don't

It is the surest sign yet that corporate credit markets are roaring anew: The "staple" is back.

During the private-equity frenzy of the past decade, investment bankers worked both sides of deals, advising sellers while offering financing to prospective buyers. That practice, known as staple financing because lending terms were stapled to a deal's term sheet, helped fuel the largest buyout boom in history.

While these financing packages are still a far cry from those arranged for the megadeals of yore, the staple is quietly showing up in a number of new transactions.

That is welcome news for private-equity firms, which aren't only looking to sell portfolio companies, but also are keen to acquire businesses with their billions of dollars in unused capital.

The staple is now a factor in the $3 billion auction for financial data provider Interactive Data Corp. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is offering a staple of five times the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, according to people familiar with the deal.

That in turn has prompted Bank of America Merrill Lynch to offer 5.5 times Ebitda to buyers, a group that includes McGraw Hill Cos.; Apax Partners; Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.; and Bain Capital LLC and Advent International Corp., these people said. An IDC spokesman declined to comment.

Staple financing came under legal criticism during the buyout boom for causing a number of conflicts of interests among banks. But no one in the market seems overly concerned about that today, as they are happy to have more capital available after the historic credit crunch of 2008 and 2009.

"It is suddenly the new reality for these deals. You have to do it," said one banker advising on a staple-financed deal. "It is on smaller deals than the last time, so a little more responsible. Still, we never learn."

The staple is now playing a role in a slew of previously unreported auctions. Michael Foods, a Minnetonka, Minn.-based food processor and distributor owned by private-equity firm Thomas H. Lee Partners, is on the block, according to people familiar with the deal.

Bank of America is handling the sale and offering financing of six times Ebitda on the deal, which could command a price of more than $1.5 billion. A spokeswoman for THL declined to comment.

Another auction underway is for the Hillman Group, a Cincinnati, Ohio-based manufacturer of nuts, bolts and other fasteners sold to Home Depot, Lowe's and other home-improvement stores, according to people familiar with the deal.

Barclays PLC is handling the auction and has indicated to potential buyers it would offer financing at about five times the company's Ebitda.

Hillman, which has more than 1,700 employees and is controlled by Chicago private-equity firm Code Hennessy & Simmons LLC, is expected to fetch more than $800 million.

Bresnan In Talks

Another deal being considered with staple financing is Bresnan Communications, a Purchase, N.Y.-based cable and telecommunications provider controlled by Providence Equity Partners, Quadrangle Group and Comcast Corp. The three firms have owned Bresnan for eight years, and hope to fetch at least $1 billion for the company.

Bresnan is talking with UBS AG about an auction to shop the company around, said people familiar with the matter. That process has not started yet, but could soon, said these people.

Another bank, Credit Suisse AG, is talking with Bresnan about offering staple financing to potential buyers at about six times the company's Ebitda, according to these people. That agreement has yet to be inked but could soon, they added.

Bresnan spokesman Shawn Beqaj said "it is natural that our partners take an opportunity in year eight of the private-equity cycle to determine their valuation and explore options."

But staple financing has its risks: Namely, potential for conflicts of interest, as investment banks advising a seller may have incentive to favor a buyer who takes advantage of the bank's offered financing.

Influential Delaware Court of Chancery Judge Leo Strine wrote, in a 2005 ruling related to the sale of Toys "R" Us Inc., that using Credit Suisse as advisor and lender on the deal created an "appearance of impropriety."

The practice of staple financing played "into already heightened suspicions about the ethics of investment banking firms," Mr. Strine wrote.

Some Benefits Seen

Mr. Strine noted that there were situations when staple financing can be beneficial to a company. When an adviser commits to provide financing to any bidder, for instance, it can induce more bidders to participate in the auction, a scenario "wholly consistent with the best interests" of the company, he wrote.

In an article published last year in the Delaware Journal of Corporate Law, Christopher Foulds, now a lawyer at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom in Wilmington, Del., argued that staple financing is advantageous to corporate sellers in weak credit markets because it is more likely that a staple-financed deal will close.

Also, with the lending terms set by the selling bank, staple financing can set a floor on the company's value.

"While there's a clear conflict of interest," said Guhan Subramanian, a professor of law and business at Harvard University who studies corporate acquisitions, "that conflict has to be weighed against the benefits of creating a more robust auction."

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Watching TV Linked to Higher Risk of Death

If you're reading this sitting down, you might consider standing up.

In a provocative look at the impact of sedentary behavior on health, a new study links time watching television to an increased risk of death. One of the most surprising findings is that it isn't just couch potatoes who were affected—even for people who exercised regularly, the risk of death went up the longer they were in front of the TV. The problem was the prolonged periods of time spent sitting still.

[heartbeat]

Australian researchers who tracked 8,800 people for an average of six years found that those who said they watched TV for more than four hours a day were 46% more likely to die of any cause and 80% more likely to die of cardiovascular disease than people who reported spending less than two hours a day in front of the tube.

Time spent in front of televisions and computers and playing videogames has come under fire in studies in recent years for contributing to an epidemic of obesity in the U.S. and around the world. But typically the resulting public-health message urges children and adults to put down the Xbox controller and remote and get on a treadmill or a soccer field.

The Australian study offers a different take. "It's not the sweaty type of exercise we're losing," says David Dunstan, a researcher at Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, who led the study. "It's the incidental moving around, walking around, standing up and utilizing muscles that [doesn't happen] when we're plunked on a couch in front of a television." Indeed, participants in the study reported getting between 30 and 45 minutes of exercise a day, on average.

The results are supported by an emerging field of research that shows how prolonged periods of inactivity can affect the body's processing of fats and other substances that contribute to heart risk. And they suggest that people can help mitigate such risk simply by avoiding extended periods of sitting.

"If you're not up on your feet moving around, you're sedentary," says Marc Hamilton, a scientist at Pennnington Biomedical Research Center, Baton Rouge, La., who studies the biology of inactivity and who wasn't involved with the Australian study.

The report, being published Tuesday in the American Heart Association journal Circulation, focuses on TV watching in part because it is the predominant leisure-time activity in many countries, researchers said, especially in the U.S. A study by ratings firm Nielsen Co. found that Americans averaged 151 hours of TV viewing a month in the fourth quarter of 2008—more than five hours a day.

But Dr. Dunstan says the results also likely apply to such sedentary activities as sitting in front of a computer, reading a book, driving or taking the train to work. Indeed, a recent Canadian study, for instance, linked increasing time spent sitting down for any reason to higher risk of death from heart-related reasons and from any cause.

None of this diminishes the importance of the benefits derived from breaking a sweat and getting your heart rate up during regular vigorous physical activity, he says. But even if you get eight hours of sleep and spend 30 to 60 minutes a day working out, that leaves at least 15 hours for other activities. "The implication of these findings is that the extraordinary amount of sitting can undo the good effects that we know are a benefit when we get regular exercise," Dr. Dunstan says.

Participants in the study were 50 years old on average when they enrolled in 1999 and 2000. After an average six years of follow-up, 284 of the participants died, including 87 from cardiovascular causes and 125 from cancer.

A limitation of the study is that information on TV watching time and exercise was obtained at enrollment and not otherwise verified or checked during the remainder of the study, but researchers said the findings are consistent with other research.

Dr. Dunstan says other research shows the important role of muscle movement in how the body processes blood sugar and blood fats. "The absence of movement can slow down our metabolic processes," he says. "When we're sitting down or even lying on the couch, we're burning the equivalent of the energy we burn when we're sleeping."

Researchers reported that the risk of death from any cause increased by 11% for each hour a day of reported TV watching; for death from cardiovascular disease, the risk increased 18%. A heightened risk for death from cancer wasn't statistically significant, but the other findings held up even after adjusting not only for exercise, but for such risk factors as age, gender and waist circumference.

Dr. Hamilton of the Pennington research center cautions that such population-based studies can only show correlations, but his own study of what happens when people and animals become inactive offers support for the connections. For instance, after just a few hours of inactivity, an enzyme called lipoprotein lipase that pulls fat from the blood shuts down, Dr. Hamilton says. Instead of fat being transported to muscle tissue where it is burned as fuel, fat accumulates in the blood stream, where over time it can damage arteries and lead to cardiovascular disease.

Dr. Hamilton says studies suggest that after just one day of inactivity, levels of HDL, or good cholesterol, which helps transport LDL or bad cholesterol out of the blood stream, can fall by as much as 20%.

Keeping such processes working more effectively doesn't require constant intense exercise, but consciously adding more routine movement to your life might help, doctors say. "Just standing is better than sitting," says Gerard Fletcher, a cardiologist at Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, Fla., who works standing up at his computer. "When you stand up, you shuffle around a little bit" and use muscles not required when you're sitting or lying down.

Simple strategies for increasing activity include incorporating household chores such as folding laundry into TV-watching time or getting up to change a TV channel rather than using a remote control.

Write to Ron Winslow at ron.winslow@wsj.com

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Looking into the future

Hands up if you had Southwestern Energy.

No? How about XTO Energy? Range Resources? Precision Castparts?

You should have. These were top stocks of the decade in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Ten years ago, the smartest thing you could have done with your money was to invest in these. Each $1,000 invested then would be worth tens of thousands today.

Now look at the stocks the experts told you to buy instead.

The most widely recommended -- according to a quick survey at the time in the Washington Post -- were America Online, Cisco Systems, Qualcomm, MCI WorldCom, Lucent Technology and Texas Instruments.

Ahem.

Any people who invested in that portfolio have lost about two-thirds of their money. The average stock picked at random was up 3%, including dividends.

Beware of 'Disaster' Picks

Money Magazine's "The Best Investments for 2000 and Beyond": down about a fifth.

The SmartMoney/Wall Street Journal Sunday picks fell by about a half. The list was heavily weighted toward technology, and most stocks plummeted. MCI WorldCom and Nortel Networks ended up in Chapter 11.

OK, it's easy to poke fun. But it's something to think about -- especially around this time of year, when wise men once again come bearing stock tips.

Your Money: A To-Do List

Looking for money tips for the next decade? Here are a half dozen:

1 Pay off your credit cards already. Then cut them up. Obvious but true. That saves you 15% or more. A cert to beat the market.

2 Slash your taxes. They're only heading in one direction. Make the full use of your 401(k) and IRA allowances each year. If you have children, save in a 529 college-savings plan too.

3 Run the numbers on buying a home. Real estate has plunged, and fixed-rate mortgages look cheap below 5%. Do the math to see if owning now makes more sense than renting.

4 Weed out your high-fee mutual funds. Most funds charge a bundle: Few are worth it. Unless a fund is exceptional, you're better off in a low-cost index fund.

5 Check your inflation risk. Long-term bonds, including Treasurys, corporates and municipals, are all at risk if these deficits lead to higher inflation down the road, as many fear.

6 Looking for a wager? Try the iShares MSCI Japan Index exchange-traded fund (EWJ). At the start of the new decade, the Tokyo stock market may be the world's least fashionable investment.

-- B.A.

The embarrassments don't stop there. Investors have just endured an absolutely terrible 10 years -- a string of crashes, crises, financial scandals, recessions and collapsed bubbles.

According to Standard & Poor's analyst Howard Silverblatt, it has actually been the worst decade for U.S. investors on record. When you look at total returns, including dividends, we've even done worse than the 1930s. Investors in the S&P 500 have lost about 10% this decade.

After you count inflation, investors have actually lost about 30%. That's even behind the inflationary 1970s, when investors lost about 23% in real terms.

And that's if you managed to hang on. Those shaken out during the crashes of 2001-2003 and 2007-2009 may have done much worse.

The Nasdaq Composite fell about three quarters from its peak, and, of course, many technology stocks were wiped out altogether. But how much warning did investors get from the pros? Almost none.

When Barron's, our sister publication, held its annual investment roundtable in January 2000, just two of the 10 major Wall Street figures who took part warned investors about a looming bear market. This was just three months before the Nasdaq reached its all-time high -- which is still more than double where it stands today.

Avoid 'Coffee-Cart' Tipsters

One fund manager admitted to Barron's that "I have a guy who sells me coffee in the morning, who grew up in Bombay, and he is more into the stock market than I am," echoing those infamous tales of stock tips from shoe-shine boys just before the Crash of 1929. Yet even that ominous sign wasn't enough to turn the group bearish. Instead Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Cohen said the stock market was "roughly at fair value based upon our view of S&P profits." Even technology stocks were "not overvalued" based on standard measures, she insisted.

Hubris, meet schadenfreude. Face, meet egg.

(Goldman Sachs notes that Ms. Cohen did turn more cautious some months later, near the peak.)

Ten years later, some things have changed on Wall Street. But plenty hasn't.

Much of the stock-market community is still just a marketing machine that happens to sell investments, the way, say, a drugstore like CVS sells pills. (Unfair? Just a little: CVS, after all, won't deliberately sell you bad pills.)

Investors, forewarned after the last 10 years, are better forearmed ahead of the next 10. Anyone seeking to protect his or her money needs to correct for the biases of the financial industry.

The most powerful and dangerous force on Wall Street is the herd instinct. Look out.

It's easy and safe for most "investment professionals" to stick together and recommend the same things, no matter how foolish. It's better -- for them, though perhaps not for the clients -- to be wrong in a crowd than risk standing alone. Few things are more dangerous to investors than a consensus.

And there is, of course, generally a strong bullish bias on Wall Street. Even today, as usual, most stock recommendations are positive. Never mind that the market is already nine months into a recovery that has seen the S&P 500 rise more than 63% and the Nasdaq jump over 70%. (And all the while, 17% of the country is unemployed, underemployed or has stopped looking for work.)

No matter how overvalued a stock, an analyst can always be found to say it's cheap compared to some other (even more overvalued) stock. This was common during the dotcom bubble.

It hasn't gone away. And no matter how dangerous markets may be, someone will always warn you -- just as they did in 1999 -- to stay fully invested because "you can't time the market." That this advice happens to be in their interests is, of course, mere happenstance.

Don't Chase Highflying Stocks

These days investors have relearned that the investments everyone is talking about are usually ones you don't want to buy. The risks of chasing a highflier generally outweigh the rewards. It takes a 100% profit to recover from a 50% loss.

The best investments are usually the ones nobody is talking about. Ten years ago, everybody was talking about which technology stocks to buy. Almost nobody was talking about gold. The Bank of England could barely give the stuff away at $260 an ounce.

As I've poked fun at others' poor foresight, I had better 'fess up to my own, too. Ten years ago, a money manager friend repeatedly urged me to sell everything and buy gold.

Did I listen? Don't ask

Thursday, November 19, 2009

2009 Home Buyer and Seller Survey

Characteristics of Home Buyers

? Forty-seven percent of recent home buyers were first-time buyers.

? The typical first-time home buyer was 30 years old, while the typical

repeat buyer was 48 years old.

? The 2008 median household income of buyers was $73,100. The

median income was $61,600 among first-time buyers and $88,100

among repeat buyers.

? Twenty-one percent of recent home buyers were single females, and 10

percent were single males.

? For one-third of recent home buyers, the primary reason for the recent

home purchase was a desire to own a home.

Characteristics of Homes Purchased

? New home purchases were at the lowest level in eight years?down to 18

percent of all recent home purchases.

? The typical home purchased was 1,800 square feet in size and was built

in 1991.

? Seventy-eight percent of home buyers purchased a detached single family

home.

? The median price of home purchased was $210,000 in the Northeast,

$158,000 in the Midwest, $175,000 in the South, and $240,000 in the

West.

? When considering the purchase of a home, commuting costs were

considered very or somewhat important by 78 percent of buyers.

The Home Search Process

? For more than one-third of home buyers, the first step in the home-buying

process was looking online for properties.

? Nine in ten home buyers and 94 used the Internet to search for homes.

? Real estate agents were viewed as a very useful information source by 81

percent of buyers who used an agent while searching for a home.

? The typical home buyer searched for 12 weeks and viewed 12 homes.

Home Buying and Real Estate Professionals

? Seventy-seven percent of buyers purchased their home through a real

estate agent or broker.

? Ten percent of buyers purchased a home in foreclosure, up from 3

percent in 2008.

? Forty-four percent of buyers found their agent through a referral from a

friend or family member.

It lives


UES crane collapse building note purchased

November 17, 2009 01:30PM

303 East 51st Street, new life has come to the condominium. HFZ Capital Group has acquired the note on the building from Arbor Realty Trust for $40 million, after the original principal developer, James Kennelly, invested more than $110 million for the defaulted project, according to sources. Nineteen of the building's 30 floors have already been built, and the rest should be completed within a year and a half, according to a source closely involved in the deal. The project, east of Second Avenue, has yet to be named, but HFZ is expected to invest $60 million to complete construction. HFZ is a partnership between Tamir Sapir and Ziel Feldman, chairman of Polar Investments, and Israeli-based Acro Real Estate, although Sapir had nothing to do with the crane note purchase Note: Correction Appended The 150 condo units will mostly consist of one- and two-bedroom apartments and 10 percent of the project will be used for commercial purposes. Ziv Yaakobi, CEO of Acro, which is marking its first US investment, said in a press briefing with Israeli media that it estimates they bought the rights to the building at a 30 percent discount off current real estate prices.

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Tax Credit Fuels Rise in Home Sales


Sales of existing homes surged 9.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units, as lower prices and the looming expiration of a federal tax credit lured more buyers into the market.

The data, released Friday by the National Association of Realtors, portrayed a housing market that continues to stabilize across the country and gives ammunition to those trying to extend the $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers.

Prospects for extending the credit remain mixed. On Capitol Hill, there are deep concerns about the program's cost. While many lawmakers support some form of extension, they want the credit's substantial cost to be offset by tax increases or spending cuts.

Extending the current credit would cost about $1 billion a month, according to congressional estimates. Some lawmakers are backing an expanded credit that would last through June and cost about $16.7 billion.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada has been trying to reach an agreement for a 13-month extension that would provide up to the full $8,000 for four months, and gradually reduce the credit's value over the remainder of 2010.

Aides say Mr. Reid aims to have a vote on the measure as part of next week's debate over extending federal unemployment insurance benefits. The package also is likely to include bigger tax refunds for businesses that have suffered operating losses during the downturn.

The new sales data could help backers of the credit, scheduled to expire Nov. 30. But the improvement also could undercut a key argument of backers -- that the recovery remains fragile enough to require an extension. It also doesn't alleviate concerns the credit has been subject to widespread abuse, as the Internal Revenue Service pursues more than 100,000 suspected improper claims.

Existing homes sales were up across the country, the NAR reported. The median price of an existing home has fallen 8.5% year-over-year, but prices have stabilized from their free-fall during the worst months of the recession.

The spike in demand reduced housing inventories to a two-year low. Housing inventory was down 7.5% to 3.63 million homes in September, reducing the nation's housing supply to 7.8 months from 9.3 months in August, assuming the current sales pace.

The housing market is still in rough shape: The supply of homes is still about three months bigger than normal, and distressed sales, such as foreclosure auctions, continue to drag down prices. But many analysts say the broad rebound in sales shows the market is being driven by more than first-time buyers lured by the tax credit.

Sam Khater, senior economist for First American CoreLogic Inc., said sales would likely decline only marginally if the tax credit were allowed to expire. He argued that other programs of the Federal Reserve and Federal Housing Administration have played a larger role in luring buyers.

—Jessica Holzer contributed to this article.

Write to Conor Dougherty at conor.dougherty@wsj.com and John D. McKinnon at john.mckinnon@wsj.com

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

New York Appraisals Get Shortchanged


By VIVIAN S. TOY

Published: September 25, 2009

IMAGINE the agony of a buyer when the bank’s appraiser rules that the apartment the buyer has agreed to pay $750,000 for is worth only $650,000.

What then?

The buyer has three options: move on, because the low appraisal means the mortgage the bank will give is too small to buy the apartment; scramble to come up with a larger down payment to make up for the smaller loan; or use the appraisal to try to renegotiate the price.

Real estate agents, mortgage brokers and appraisers all say that the low-ball appraisal has become increasingly common in today’s unsettled market. The problem is even more pronounced when homeowners are hoping to refinance a mortgage or get a home equity loan, because there is no current agreed-upon sale price as a benchmark, they say.

Low appraisals may reflect reality, since prices in New York City have dropped by as much as 30 percent in the last year. But agents, mortgage brokers and even some appraisers say they suspect that some appraisals are mistakenly low. They cite several reasons:

First, with sales volume having dropped by nearly 50 percent at the beginning of the year and only recently having reached more normal levels, appraisers are often hard pressed to find the comparable sales that allow them to come up with accurate appraisals.

“In a market where you have very little data points, you could have a totally unique property where there just aren’t a lot of comparables,” said Jonathan J. Miller, the president of the Manhattan appraisal firm Miller Samuel.

Second, at a time when local expertise is crucial, recent changes in national lending practices have resulted in the assignment of many appraisers who are not familiar with local markets, brokers and appraisers say. Some real estate agents say that in recent months they have fielded requests regarding Manhattan listings from appraisers from New Jersey, Suffolk County and the Hudson Valley.

Michael Vargas, a principal at Vanderbilt Appraisal in Manhattan, said that because of a major change in the appraisal process that took effect on May 1, appraisal assignments are often shifted “to appraisers who charge the least amount.” But, Mr. Vargas said, “very often those individuals are not the most experienced in your market.”

The policy change, known as the Home Valuation Code of Conduct, essentially prohibits real estate agents and mortgage brokers from ordering appraisals, and gives total control to banks and lenders. The change was intended to eliminate conflicts of interest and to prevent brokers from pressuring appraisers to come back with a specific dollar figure that might just happen to be the purchase price.

But most banks are using appraisal management companies, which are national businesses that act as middlemen and typically assign appraisals to appraisers who offer lower fees.

Mr. Miller and Mr. Vargas say that in New York, that means appraisals that usually cost $350 to $450 are often now being done for half those amounts.

The potential pitfalls are not exclusive to New York. “The least qualified and least experienced people are doing appraisals across the country,” said Jim Amorin, the president of the Appraisal Institute, a national trade group that represents 26,000 appraisers. He estimated that appraisal management companies now handle about 90 percent of the appraisal market, up from about 30 percent before May 1.

Mr. Amorin said he had heard of appraisers in California who travel 150 to 200 miles to do an appraisal.

“It’s hard to believe that they could still be in their geographically competent area,” he said. “And in Manhattan it would be even harder if you have someone coming in from the suburbs, since things can be vastly different from one side of the street to another.”

Subtleties like the inherently higher value of a second full bathroom in a two-bedroom than in a one-bedroom, or the difference between addresses on Lexington Avenue and First Avenue, can be lost on someone who doesn’t know Manhattan.

And without a stockpile of comparable sales for reference, Mr. Miller said, “you have to really know the local market, so you can go beyond the raw sales data and use all the subjective factors you can to really tell the story about a property.”

Of course, an appraiser with a 203 or 516 area code doesn’t necessarily lack expertise in Manhattan or Brooklyn. On the other hand, an unfamiliar prefix can signal unfamiliarity with this neck of the woods.

Dean Feldman, an executive vice president at Halstead Property, said that he recently met with an out-of-town appraiser for a two-bedroom apartment that had been combined from a studio and a one-bedroom.

“This person did not understand what a combined apartment was, and he kept asking me if there were two deeds for it,” Mr. Feldman said. “I had to explain that this was a co-op and it was a legal combination. It turned out fine, but I basically had to teach him.”

When the real estate market was rising, appraisals often came in higher than sales prices, as appraisers struggled to keep up with ever escalating prices. In the current down market, brokers say appraisers are now erring in the other direction — giving lower values since they know banks are reluctant to make loans.

Appraisals are one part science and, especially in a down market, many more parts art. An appraiser can use a tape measure or sonar device to calculate square footage, but how much a recent kitchen renovation is worth and what dollar figure to attach to a park view or a doorman is strictly subjective.

Appraisers readily acknowledge that two appraisers reviewing the same apartment will inevitably come up with two different values, but they add that experts in the same market are not likely to be more than 1 to 2 percent apart.

Since most banks do not send an appraisal to potential borrowers until just before or even after a scheduled closing, a buyer does not have time to challenge an appraisal that he or she believes to be too low.

“If an appraiser missed a bedroom or outdoor space, we used to be able to show them documentation was incorrect,” said Ellen Bitton, the president of Park Avenue Mortgage Group. “But now there’s no way to challenge a faulty appraisal.”

And in the current climate, banks are even less open to reconsidering decisions because most have already increased their scrutiny of loan applications and do not want any appearance of impropriety.

“The only thing you can do is prepare at the outset,” Mr. Vargas said. “Find out who is doing the appraisal and how experienced they are in the market and voice your concerns with the loan officer and if necessary, you can decline to make the appointment.”

You can ask the bank to send a different appraiser, but the bank does not have to comply, which means you risk losing the mortgage.

In most proposed sales, appraisers call real estate agents for an appointment to view the property. For a refinancing, they call the homeowners directly. Mr. Miller advised that appraisers always be met directly by the agent or homeowner.

“Humanize it and provide relevant data to the appraiser,” he said. “Let them know that the apartment across the street just sold for less than this one, but you know it was a fixer-upper.”

Charles Homet, a senior vice president at Halstead, said that “appraisals are kind of cloaked in mystery” and that most appraisers tend to be tight-lipped.

“It’s like a restaurant inspector,” Mr. Homet said. “They need to appear to be above influence. But I always make sure I have relevant comps in hand and I’m prepared to discuss as much as the appraiser is willing to listen why I think the price is supported.”

He said that in addition to recent sales in the same or nearby buildings, he also provides prices of apartments that have just gone into contract that may not yet have been put into the public record.

Mr. Feldman of Halstead said that since the market tends to “like” some buildings better than others, he makes that clear if he’s dealing with an appraiser unfamiliar with a neighborhood or a specific building. “I can point out that it’s closer to the park or to Citarella than the nearest comp, or maybe I know that a more expensive apartment a few floors higher has a much better view because it clears the town houses across the street,” he said. “I try to share as much information as I can, so they’re armed with the proper tools to make a decision.”

Melissa Cohn, the president of Manhattan Mortgage, says the new appraisal world means that to best serve clients, real estate and mortgage brokers should fully vet potential borrowers, to make sure they qualify before they even submit a loan application.

Ms. Cohn noted that because of low appraisals, new developments in particular have been susceptible to failed deals. Buyers who signed contracts a year or two year ago are likely to receive appraisals significantly lower than the prices they agreed to pay.

One of Ms. Cohn’s clients had signed a contract in 2007 for a $3.5 million condo. But as the closing date approached recently, the client’s bank denied the mortgage because the appraisal came in at $3.1 million. The client started the process all over with a second bank, and that bank’s appraiser found comparables among buyers who had closed at their original purchase prices; he came up with a $3.5 million appraisal.

“So the second appraiser’s opinion was the value was there, because people were paying those prices,” Ms. Cohn said. However, she added, purchase prices in new developments are not always actual prices, since many developers are agreeing to pay closing costs or offering other financial concessions. “It just shows you how nebulous the actual value can be,” she said.